BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Verdin In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieArid-land birds

Verdin in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-73%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Verdin has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Verdin In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Verdin in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Verdin in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.040.000.14
20270.040.000.14
20280.030.000.14
20290.030.000.14
20300.030.000.14

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Verdin in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PecosTEXAS172017
PlainsTEXAS32016
WinkTEXAS21986
DoughertyTEXAS22008
San SimonNEW-MEXICO12019
RankinTEXAS12025
PostTEXAS12019
StilesTEXAS12017
MentoneTEXAS12008
MidlandTEXAS11995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.