BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Verdin In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsArid-land birds

Verdin in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has held roughly steady: down 6% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-6%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Verdin in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Verdin In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Verdin in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 6.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 4.6–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.6–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Verdin in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 6.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 4.6–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.94.415
202610.04.416
2027104.516
2028104.616
2029104.616

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Verdin in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Organ PipeARIZONA942023
Bates WellARIZONA532023
FlorenceARIZONA471988
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA462013
New RiverARIZONA432016
Cutter 2ARIZONA362018
Cabeza PrietARIZONA312024
Red Rock 2ARIZONA312024
Alamo Res.ARIZONA302024
Cibola LakeARIZONA262024
LukevilleARIZONA241981
AjoARIZONA202008
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA202010
WickenburgARIZONA172023
ArabyARIZONA162023
GlamisCALIFORNIA142018
RivieraARIZONA122024
BarstowCALIFORNIA121998
Ash MeadowsNEVADA122023
WikieupARIZONA112024
Ajo 2ARIZONA102022
DatelandARIZONA92024
Hope 2ARIZONA92019
Squaw PeakARIZONA81970
Palo VerdeARIZONA82013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.