BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Verdin In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesArid-land birds

Verdin in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 100% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+100%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Verdin has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 100% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Verdin In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Verdin in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 111% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.45 (95% range 0.00–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±292.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+111%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.45Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±292.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Verdin in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 111% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.45 (95% range 0.00–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±292.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.430.000.87
20260.430.000.88
20270.440.000.89
20280.440.000.89
20290.450.000.90

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Verdin in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CampbelltonTEXAS72024
Whit Mtn.TEXAS41994
AlbanyTEXAS22019
Three RiversTEXAS22024
HobsonTEXAS12007
Lone OakTEXAS12012
GrafordTEXAS11974
OlneyTEXAS12023
HenriettaTEXAS11988
YoakumTEXAS11995
BriteTEXAS12024
MegargelTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.