BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Verdin In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesArid-land birds

Verdin in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+87%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Verdin has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Verdin In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Verdin in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 598% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.00–0.88). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±473.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+598%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.43Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±473.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Verdin in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 598% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.00–0.88). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±473.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.410.000.86
20270.410.000.86
20280.420.000.87
20290.420.000.87
20300.430.000.88

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Verdin in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CampbelltonTEXAS72024
Whit Mtn.TEXAS41994
AlbanyTEXAS22019
Three RiversTEXAS22025
HobsonTEXAS12007
Lone OakTEXAS12012
GrafordTEXAS11974
OlneyTEXAS12023
HenriettaTEXAS11988
YoakumTEXAS11995
BriteTEXAS12025
MegargelTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.