BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Verdin In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalArid-land birds

Verdin in Sierra Madre Occidental has edged down: down 16% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-16%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Verdin in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Verdin In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Verdin in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.3 (95% range 1.5–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±88.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Verdin in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.3 (95% range 1.5–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.31.511
20266.31.511
20276.31.511
20286.31.511
20296.31.511

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Verdin in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CutterARIZONA602014
Bartlett ResARIZONA432024
PomereneARIZONA322024
RedingtonARIZONA242023
Carr MtnARIZONA162024
Aztec PeakARIZONA151978
AmadoARIZONA112023
SunizonaARIZONA71997
SahuaritaARIZONA62024
PatagoniaARIZONA32023
San SimonARIZONA22024
Peña BlancaARIZONA22024
DragoonARIZONA22009
RuckerARIZONA22003
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO22022
Skull ValleyARIZONA12018
McnealARIZONA12024
PortalARIZONA12024
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12023
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.