BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Verdin In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieArid-land birds

Verdin in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-61%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Verdin has fallen sharply in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Verdin In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Verdin in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.14 (95% range 0.01–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±341.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±341.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Verdin in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.14 (95% range 0.01–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±341.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.140.000.27
20270.140.000.27
20280.140.000.27
20290.140.000.27
20300.140.010.28

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Verdin in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pear ValleyTEXAS62019
Shields 2TEXAS52019
WinchellTEXAS32010
WeinertTEXAS31994
MertzonTEXAS22013
HackberryTEXAS22012
HaskellTEXAS22022
WallTEXAS22015
SilverTEXAS22025
GraybackTEXAS12012
EldoradoTEXAS11976
Mertzon 2TEXAS12025
HawleyTEXAS11996
WilliamsTEXAS12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.