BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Verdin In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertArid-land birds

Verdin in Chihuahuan Desert has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-64%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Verdin has fallen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Verdin In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Verdin in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 0.00–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Verdin in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 0.00–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.60.007.4
20263.60.007.4
20273.60.007.4
20283.60.007.4
20293.60.007.4

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Verdin in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SlaughterTEXAS272014
PresidioTEXAS202023
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS182009
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS152024
JornadaNEW-MEXICO142024
ComstockTEXAS142019
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO122024
LangtryTEXAS112000
MesillaNEW-MEXICO92000
Sierra BlancTEXAS72024
ShafterTEXAS61985
Salt FlatTEXAS62015
PumpvilleTEXAS62024
Hot SpringsTEXAS52024
Delaware CrkTEXAS52015
Casa PiedraTEXAS52023
Dove Mtn.TEXAS52006
Van HornTEXAS52024
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO42019
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO42023
CastolonTEXAS42024
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO31977
ValentineTEXAS31984
OzonaTEXAS32021
GageNEW-MEXICO22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.