BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canyon Towhee Population Analysis

PasserellidaeArid-land birdsMelozone fusca

Canyon Towhee has edged up: up 12% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+12%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
198RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Canyon Towhee

The Canyon Towhee (Melozone fusca) is a North American member of the New World Sparrows (Passerellidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the arid-land birds.

Size
4.5–7.5 in long (12–19 cm) — a small songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Deserts, dry scrub and brushland of the Southwest.
Diet
Seeds, insects and cactus fruit of arid-land plants.
Range
Recorded on 198 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 4 states, most concentrated in the Chihuahuan Desert.
Family
Passerellidae · Arid-land birds

Notable Canyon Towhee TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canyon Towhee. See the full index history below.

Canyon Towhee Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Towhee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.11 (95% range 0.04–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Towhee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.11 (95% range 0.04–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.110.040.18
20270.110.040.18
20280.110.040.18
20290.110.040.18
20300.110.040.18

Where the Canyon Towhee Is Detected

BBS routes recording Canyon Towhee, sized by most recent count.

Canyon Towhee Population Trend by State

Canyon Towhee population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona-12%197045
Colorado-51%197314
New Mexico-61%197063
Texas-25%196976

Canyon Towhee Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Canyon Towhee population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-75%197040
Shortgrass Prairie-54%197028
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+96%196913
Edwards Plateau+13%197114
Oaks and Prairies-15%19937
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts-32%197016
Sierra Madre Occidental-47%197028
Chihuahuan Desert-52%196950

Canyon Towhee Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 12% since 1969.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.