BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canyon Towhee Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Canyon Towhee in New Mexico has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-61%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canyon Towhee Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canyon Towhee has fallen sharply in New Mexico: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Canyon Towhee Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Towhee in New Mexico is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Towhee in New Mexico is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.002.3
20261.10.002.3
20271.10.002.3
20281.10.002.2
20291.00.002.2

Canyon Towhee Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Canyon Towhee in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mountainair1720241994
La Cienega1120221968
Magdalena1020241997
Counselor620241994
Capitan Mtn.620171993
Torreon520241975
Claunch520001978
Quemado519971995
Wagon Mound419761970
Carrizozo420241968
Sabinoso420211980
Nageesi320241969
San Simon320012001
Pecos320161973
San Antonio319741974
Roswell320231972
Cloudcroft319771977
Salt Lake320011999
Variadero320221994
La Plata319911991
Queen320211993
Grenville220211968
Tucumcari219751975
Deming219711969
Gallo Arroyo220182007

Canyon Towhee Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.