BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canyon Towhee Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Canyon Towhee in Texas has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-38%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canyon Towhee Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canyon Towhee in Texas. See the full index history below.

Canyon Towhee Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Towhee in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.57 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.57Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Towhee in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.57 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.610.001.3
20260.600.001.3
20270.590.001.3
20280.580.001.3
20290.570.001.3

Canyon Towhee Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Canyon Towhee in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Valentine2619871969
Bear Mtn2320241988
Pumpville1620242006
Devils R Cyn1120241994
Ft. Davis920232004
Kermit 2720162004
Allen Creek620241994
Comstock620231969
Rotan619761976
Chisos Basin520231995
Toyahvale520241996
Indian Mtn520241976
Langtry420001994
Rankin420191983
Hawley420241997
Frankel City420182003
Campbellton320001995
Duran319991996
Rockspring320221994
Altuda320161968
Dove Mtn.320042004
Catarina219741974
Lockhart220022002
Boerne220101992
Utopia220241969

Canyon Towhee Population Trend in Other States

arizonacoloradonew-mexico

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.