BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canyon Towhee Population Trend in Texas

All statesArid-land birds

Canyon Towhee in Texas has declined: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-25%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canyon Towhee Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canyon Towhee in Texas. See the full index history below.

Canyon Towhee Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Towhee in Texas is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 0.64 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Towhee in Texas is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 0.64 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.600.001.3
20270.590.001.3
20280.580.001.3
20290.570.001.3
20300.560.001.3

Canyon Towhee Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Canyon Towhee in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Devils R Cyn2920251994
Valentine2619871969
Bear Mtn2420251988
Chisos Basin720251995
Kermit 2720162004
Rotan619761976
San Saba520251971
Indian Mtn520241976
Langtry420001994
Castolon420251994
Toyahvale420251996
Rankin420191983
Hawley420241997
Silver420252002
Frankel City420182003
Marfa320252004
Campbellton320001995
Pumpville320252006
Duran319991996
Altuda320161968
Dove Mtn.320042004
Marathon220252004
Catarina219741974
Lockhart220022002
Boerne220101992

Canyon Towhee Population Trend in Other States

arizonacoloradonew-mexico

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.