BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canyon Towhee Population Trend in Arizona

All statesArid-land birds

Canyon Towhee in Arizona has edged down: down 12% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-12%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canyon Towhee Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canyon Towhee in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Canyon Towhee Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Towhee in Arizona is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.00–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Towhee in Arizona is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.00–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.90.004.2
20271.90.004.2
20281.80.004.1
20291.80.004.1
20301.80.004.1

Canyon Towhee Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Canyon Towhee in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bartlett Res1620251992
Cutter1420141992
Redington1220251993
Pisinimo1119931993
Seligman1120251994
Casa Grande820221989
Skull Valley720241997
Forest Lakes720251992
Carr Mtn720251985
Portal620251975
Wikieup620151993
Florence619721968
Cutter 2620182015
Amado620251993
Sahuarita620251992
Pomerene520251968
Peña Blanca520251975
Williams520011993
Red Rock 2420242015
Wickenburg420232017
Peach Spring420251993
Dragoon320091993
Ajo320061968
Skull Valley 2320252025
San Simon220221969

Canyon Towhee Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.