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Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canyon Towhee Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Canyon Towhee in Arizona has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-21%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canyon Towhee Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canyon Towhee in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Canyon Towhee Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Towhee in Arizona is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.00–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Towhee in Arizona is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.00–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.004.2
20261.90.004.2
20271.80.004.2
20281.80.004.1
20291.80.004.1

Canyon Towhee Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Canyon Towhee in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bartlett Res2520241992
Cutter1420141992
Pisinimo1119931993
Portal1020241975
Redington920221993
Clay Spring920242012
Patagonia820241968
Forest Lakes820241992
Casa Grande820221989
Skull Valley720241997
Wikieup620151993
Prescott620221976
Florence619721968
Cutter 2620182015
Williams520011993
Amado520231993
Red Rock 2420242015
Wickenburg420232017
Dragoon320091993
Ajo320061968
Pomerene220241968
San Simon220221969
Peña Blanca220241975
Riviera220241992
Pinetop220222017

Canyon Towhee Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.