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Species · Colorado · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canyon Towhee Population Trend in Colorado

All statesArid-land birds

Canyon Towhee in Colorado has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-51%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canyon Towhee Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canyon Towhee has fallen sharply in Colorado: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Canyon Towhee Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Towhee in Colorado is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Towhee in Colorado is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.050.000.10
20270.050.000.10
20280.050.000.10
20290.050.000.10
20300.050.000.10

Canyon Towhee Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Canyon Towhee in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Walsenburg720251996
Gilpin519971995
Doyle Bridge 2420072007
Wet Mtns.220012001
Westcliffe219981998
Ludlow220162002
Cone Mtn220221988
Ellicott220172017
Cokedale120221996
Ninaview120242000
Crowley119931990
Gardner120051998
Villegreen120241989
Mica Butte119861968

Canyon Towhee Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.