BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canyon Towhee In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieArid-land birds

Canyon Towhee in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-54%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canyon Towhee has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Canyon Towhee In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Towhee in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 127% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±229.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+127%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±229.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Towhee in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 127% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±229.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.180.000.36
20270.180.000.36
20280.180.000.36
20290.180.000.36
20300.180.000.36

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Canyon Towhee in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kermit 2TEXAS72016
GilpinCOLORADO51997
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO42007
FarleyNEW-MEXICO42025
Wagon MoundNEW-MEXICO41976
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO42021
RankinTEXAS42019
Frankel CityTEXAS42018
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO32022
San SimonNEW-MEXICO32001
Cone MtnCOLORADO22022
EllicottCOLORADO22017
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO22021
TucumcariNEW-MEXICO21975
RosebudNEW-MEXICO22025
LamesaTEXAS22024
MidlandTEXAS22015
Mica ButteCOLORADO11986
CrowleyCOLORADO11993
VillegreenCOLORADO12024
NinaviewCOLORADO12024
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO11979
LoganNEW-MEXICO11998
PostTEXAS11983
PlainsTEXAS12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.