BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canyon Towhee In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Canyon Towhee in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-58%Since 1970
28Routes In Region
55Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Canyon Towhee has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Towhee in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 157% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±198.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+157%Change by 2029
0.18Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.3795% range
±198.1%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.180.000.37
20260.180.000.37
20270.180.000.37
20280.180.000.37
20290.180.000.37

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Canyon Towhee in Shortgrass Prairie.
Kermit 2TEXAS72016
GilpinCOLORADO51997
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO42007
Wagon MoundNEW-MEXICO41976
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO42021
RankinTEXAS42019
Frankel CityTEXAS42018
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO32022
San SimonNEW-MEXICO32001
Cone MtnCOLORADO22022
EllicottCOLORADO22017
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO22021
TucumcariNEW-MEXICO21975
LamesaTEXAS22024
MidlandTEXAS22015
Mica ButteCOLORADO11986
CrowleyCOLORADO11993
VillegreenCOLORADO12024
NinaviewCOLORADO12024
FarleyNEW-MEXICO12024
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO11979
RosebudNEW-MEXICO12024
LoganNEW-MEXICO11998
PostTEXAS11983
PlainsTEXAS12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.