BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canyon Towhee In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalArid-land birds

Canyon Towhee in Sierra Madre Occidental has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-47%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canyon Towhee in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Canyon Towhee In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Towhee in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Towhee in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.70.007.1
20272.60.007.0
20282.50.006.9
20292.50.006.8
20302.40.006.7

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Canyon Towhee in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bartlett ResARIZONA162025
CutterARIZONA142014
RedingtonARIZONA122025
Skull ValleyARIZONA72024
Forest LakesARIZONA72025
Carr MtnARIZONA72025
AmadoARIZONA62025
SahuaritaARIZONA62025
PortalARIZONA62025
PomereneARIZONA52025
Peña BlancaARIZONA52025
WilliamsARIZONA52001
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO52025
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO52025
Skull Valley 2ARIZONA32025
DragoonARIZONA32009
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO32025
San SimonARIZONA22022
PatagoniaARIZONA22025
PinetopARIZONA22022
Clay SpringARIZONA22025
Sunizona 2ARIZONA22025
PrescottARIZONA12025
Aztec PeakARIZONA11977
SunizonaARIZONA11997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.