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Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canyon Towhee In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Canyon Towhee in Sierra Madre Occidental has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-49%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canyon Towhee in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Canyon Towhee In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Towhee in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 4.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Towhee in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 4.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.80.007.2
20262.70.007.1
20272.60.007.0
20282.50.006.9
20292.40.006.8

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Canyon Towhee in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bartlett ResARIZONA252024
CutterARIZONA142014
PortalARIZONA102024
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO102024
RedingtonARIZONA92022
Clay SpringARIZONA92024
PatagoniaARIZONA82024
Forest LakesARIZONA82024
Skull ValleyARIZONA72024
PrescottARIZONA62022
WilliamsARIZONA52001
AmadoARIZONA52023
DragoonARIZONA32009
PomereneARIZONA22024
San SimonARIZONA22022
Peña BlancaARIZONA22024
PinetopARIZONA22022
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO22023
Aztec PeakARIZONA11977
SunizonaARIZONA11997
SahuaritaARIZONA12024
McnealARIZONA12024
Carr MtnARIZONA12023
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12024
RuckerARIZONA12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.