BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canyon Towhee In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertArid-land birds

Canyon Towhee in Chihuahuan Desert has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-52%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canyon Towhee has fallen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Canyon Towhee In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Towhee in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.00–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Towhee in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.00–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.70.004.6
20271.70.004.5
20281.60.004.5
20291.60.004.4
20301.50.004.4

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Canyon Towhee in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Devils R CynTEXAS292025
ValentineTEXAS261987
Bear MtnTEXAS242025
Chisos BasinTEXAS72025
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO62017
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO42024
LangtryTEXAS42000
CastolonTEXAS42025
ToyahvaleTEXAS42025
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO31974
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO31977
QueenNEW-MEXICO32021
AltudaTEXAS32016
Dove Mtn.TEXAS32004
MarfaTEXAS32025
PumpvilleTEXAS32025
DemingNEW-MEXICO21971
Hot SpringsTEXAS22025
Black GapTEXAS22023
LongfellowTEXAS22025
OzonaTEXAS22022
Casa PiedraTEXAS22019
Sierra BlancTEXAS22025
MarathonTEXAS22025
RoswellNEW-MEXICO12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.