BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canyon Towhee In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Canyon Towhee in Chihuahuan Desert has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-65%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canyon Towhee has fallen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Canyon Towhee In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Towhee in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.00–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Towhee in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.00–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.004.6
20261.70.004.6
20271.60.004.5
20281.60.004.5
20291.50.004.4

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Canyon Towhee in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ValentineTEXAS261987
Bear MtnTEXAS232024
PumpvilleTEXAS162024
Devils R CynTEXAS112024
Ft. DavisTEXAS92023
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO62017
ComstockTEXAS62023
ToyahvaleTEXAS52024
Chisos BasinTEXAS52023
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO42024
LangtryTEXAS42000
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO31974
RoswellNEW-MEXICO32023
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO31977
QueenNEW-MEXICO32021
AltudaTEXAS32016
Dove Mtn.TEXAS32004
DemingNEW-MEXICO21971
Black GapTEXAS22023
LongfellowTEXAS22023
OzonaTEXAS22022
Casa PiedraTEXAS22019
GageNEW-MEXICO12019
JornadaNEW-MEXICO11981
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.