BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canyon Towhee In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Canyon Towhee in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has fallen sharply: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-75%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canyon Towhee has fallen sharply in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Canyon Towhee In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Towhee in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±103.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Towhee in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.74
20260.010.000.72
20270.000.000.71
20280.000.000.71
20290.000.000.71

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Canyon Towhee in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MountainairNEW-MEXICO172024
La CienegaNEW-MEXICO112022
CounselorNEW-MEXICO62024
TorreonNEW-MEXICO52024
ClaunchNEW-MEXICO52000
QuemadoNEW-MEXICO51997
NageesiNEW-MEXICO32024
PecosNEW-MEXICO32016
Salt LakeNEW-MEXICO32001
La PlataNEW-MEXICO31991
Peach SpringARIZONA22024
Wet Mtns.COLORADO22001
WestcliffeCOLORADO21998
LudlowCOLORADO22016
Mt. TaylorNEW-MEXICO22008
Corona EastNEW-MEXICO21994
Bluewater LakeNEW-MEXICO22021
Gallo ArroyoNEW-MEXICO22018
Mt TrumbullARIZONA11993
The GapARIZONA11968
HuntARIZONA12018
SeligmanARIZONA12024
CokedaleCOLORADO12022
WalsenburgCOLORADO12024
GardnerCOLORADO12005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.