BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Abert's Towhee

PasserellidaeArid-land birdsMelozone aberti

Abert's Towhee has surged: up 330% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+330%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Abert's Towhee

The Abert's Towhee (Melozone aberti) is a North American member of the New World Sparrows (Passerellidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the arid-land birds.

Size
4.5–7.5 in long (12–19 cm) — a small songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Deserts, dry scrub and brushland of the Southwest.
Diet
Seeds, insects and cactus fruit of arid-land plants.
Range
Recorded on 42 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 5 states, most concentrated in the Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Family
Passerellidae · Arid-land birds

Notable Abert's Towhee TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Abert's Towhee. See the full index history below.

Abert's Towhee Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Abert's Towhee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.02–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Abert's Towhee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.02–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.010.05
20260.030.020.05
20270.030.020.05
20280.030.020.05
20290.030.020.05

Where the Abert's Towhee Is Detected

BBS routes recording Abert's Towhee, sized by most recent count.

Abert's Towhee Population Trend by State

Abert's Towhee population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona+173%197129
California+57%197410
Nevadainsufficient datan/a1
New Mexicoinsufficient datan/a1
Utahinsufficient datan/a1

Abert's Towhee Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Abert's Towhee population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts+209%197129
Sierra Madre Occidental+75%197311

Abert's Towhee Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 330% since 1971.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.