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Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Abert's Towhee Population Trend in Arizona

All statesArid-land birds

Abert's Towhee in Arizona has surged: up 173% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+173%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Abert's Towhee Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Abert's Towhee has surged in Arizona: up 173% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Abert's Towhee Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Abert's Towhee in Arizona is projected to rise about 58% by 2029 — from 0.94 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.70–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+58%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.70–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Abert's Towhee in Arizona is projected to rise about 58% by 2029 — from 0.94 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.70–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.632.2
20261.40.652.2
20271.50.672.3
20281.50.682.3
20291.50.702.3

Abert's Towhee Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Abert's Towhee in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Casa Grande1020231989
Pomerene920241969
Redington820231993
Bartlett Res720242002
Florence519881971
Cactus Forest520241991
Laguna420191968
Palo Verde420131992
Araby420231996
Wickenburg420232017
New River320161977
Dateland320211991
Sunizona319971996
Palo Verde 2320242014
Riviera320212003
Carr Mtn320241988
Peña Blanca220222022
Patagonia220241997
Cutter 2220172015
Alamo Res.220231992
Cibola Lake220241993
Cutter220142014
Coolidge119851974
San Simon120192001
Red Rock 2120242015

Abert's Towhee Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.