BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Abert's Towhee In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalArid-land birds

Abert's Towhee in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+75%Since 1973
11Routes In Region
46Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Abert's Towhee has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Abert's Towhee in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.64 (95% range 0.09–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2029
0.64Projected 2029 index
0.09–1.295% range
±35.1%Backtest error
19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.620.071.2
20260.630.071.2
20270.630.081.2
20280.630.081.2
20290.640.091.2

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Abert's Towhee in Sierra Madre Occidental.
PomereneARIZONA92024
RedingtonARIZONA82023
Bartlett ResARIZONA72024
SunizonaARIZONA31997
Carr MtnARIZONA32024
Peña BlancaARIZONA22022
PatagoniaARIZONA22024
CutterARIZONA22014
San SimonARIZONA12019
AmadoARIZONA12017
SahuaritaARIZONA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.