Lucy's Warbler
Lucy's Warbler has risen sharply: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1970.
About the Lucy's Warbler
The Lucy's Warbler (Leiothlypis luciae) is a North American member of the Wood-Warblers (Parulidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the arid-land birds.
- Size
- 4.5–5.5 in long (11–14 cm) — a small, active songbird (typical for the family)
- Habitat
- Deserts, dry scrub and brushland of the Southwest.
- Diet
- Seeds, insects and cactus fruit of arid-land plants.
- Range
- Recorded on 88 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 6 states, most concentrated in the Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
- Family
- Parulidae · Arid-land birds
Notable Lucy's Warbler Trends
Lucy's Warbler has risen sharply in surveyed states: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1970.
Lucy's Warbler Population Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Lucy's Warbler is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.24 (95% range 0.17–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.23 | 0.16 | 0.30 |
| 2026 | 0.23 | 0.16 | 0.30 |
| 2027 | 0.23 | 0.16 | 0.31 |
| 2028 | 0.24 | 0.17 | 0.31 |
| 2029 | 0.24 | 0.17 | 0.31 |
Where the Lucy's Warbler Is Detected
BBS routes recording Lucy's Warbler, sized by most recent count.
Lucy's Warbler Population Trend by State
| Arizona | +12% | 1970 | 54 |
| California | +101% | 1980 | 3 |
| Nevada | +923% | 1989 | 7 |
| New Mexico | +385% | 1993 | 12 |
| Texas | +75% | 2001 | 6 |
| Utah | +682% | 1994 | 6 |
Lucy's Warbler Population Trend by Region
Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.
| Great Basin | +500% | 1997 | 3 |
| Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau | +664% | 1994 | 6 |
| Sonoran and Mojave Deserts | +159% | 1970 | 40 |
| Sierra Madre Occidental | -43% | 1970 | 23 |
| Chihuahuan Desert | +305% | 1993 | 15 |
Lucy's Warbler Conservation Status
Our route-weighted index shows it up about 70% since 1970.
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.