BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lucy's Warbler In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalArid-land birds

Lucy's Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-43%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lucy's Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Lucy's Warbler In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lucy's Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lucy's Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025120.0026
2026110.0026
2027110.0026
2028110.0026
2029110.0026

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Lucy's Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PomereneARIZONA1732024
RedingtonARIZONA772023
PatagoniaARIZONA622024
CutterARIZONA472014
Peña BlancaARIZONA442024
SahuaritaARIZONA392024
AmadoARIZONA372023
Bartlett ResARIZONA162024
Carr MtnARIZONA162024
San SimonARIZONA122024
Skull ValleyARIZONA72024
SunizonaARIZONA41997
PortalARIZONA32024
AlpineARIZONA22003
McnealARIZONA22024
ReserveNEW-MEXICO22010
PrescottARIZONA12022
Mormon LakeARIZONA11968
Aztec PeakARIZONA11978
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12022
DragoonARIZONA12009
RuckerARIZONA12003
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.