BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lucy's Warbler In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalArid-land birds

Lucy's Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-43%Since 1970
23Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for Lucy's Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lucy's Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2029
11Projected 2029 index
0.00–2695% range
±39.8%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025120.0026
2026110.0026
2027110.0026
2028110.0026
2029110.0026

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Lucy's Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental.
PomereneARIZONA1732024
RedingtonARIZONA772023
PatagoniaARIZONA622024
CutterARIZONA472014
Peña BlancaARIZONA442024
SahuaritaARIZONA392024
AmadoARIZONA372023
Bartlett ResARIZONA162024
Carr MtnARIZONA162024
San SimonARIZONA122024
Skull ValleyARIZONA72024
SunizonaARIZONA41997
PortalARIZONA32024
AlpineARIZONA22003
McnealARIZONA22024
ReserveNEW-MEXICO22010
PrescottARIZONA12022
Mormon LakeARIZONA11968
Aztec PeakARIZONA11978
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12022
DragoonARIZONA12009
RuckerARIZONA12003
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.