BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lucy's Warbler In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertArid-land birds

Lucy's Warbler in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 305% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

+305%Since 1993TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lucy's Warbler has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 305% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

Lucy's Warbler In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lucy's Warbler in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.9 (95% range 1.2–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lucy's Warbler in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.9 (95% range 1.2–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19912029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.81.12.4
20261.81.12.5
20271.81.22.5
20281.91.22.5
20291.91.22.6

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Lucy's Warbler in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red RockNEW-MEXICO272024
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO152024
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS152009
GageNEW-MEXICO72021
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO72024
RodeoNEW-MEXICO32024
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO32016
Sierra BlancTEXAS32024
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO22023
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS22024
JornadaNEW-MEXICO12024
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO12023
CastolonTEXAS12018
PresidioTEXAS12021
Van HornTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.