BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lucy's Warbler In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertArid-land birds

Lucy's Warbler in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 305% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

+305%Since 1993
15Routes In Region
33Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Lucy's Warbler has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 305% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lucy's Warbler in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.9 (95% range 1.2–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029
1.9Projected 2029 index
1.2–2.695% range
±21.4%Backtest error
19912029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.81.12.4
20261.81.12.5
20271.81.22.5
20281.91.22.5
20291.91.22.6

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Lucy's Warbler in Chihuahuan Desert.
Red RockNEW-MEXICO272024
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO152024
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS152009
GageNEW-MEXICO72021
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO72024
RodeoNEW-MEXICO32024
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO32016
Sierra BlancTEXAS32024
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO22023
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS22024
JornadaNEW-MEXICO12024
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO12023
CastolonTEXAS12018
PresidioTEXAS12021
Van HornTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.