BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lucy's Warbler In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertArid-land birds

Lucy's Warbler in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 249% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

+249%Since 1993TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lucy's Warbler has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 249% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

Lucy's Warbler In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lucy's Warbler in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 59% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.2–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+59%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lucy's Warbler in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 59% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.2–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19912030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.71.02.4
20271.71.12.4
20281.81.12.5
20291.81.12.5
20301.91.22.5

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Lucy's Warbler in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red RockNEW-MEXICO182025
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS152009
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO112025
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO52025
RodeoNEW-MEXICO32025
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO32016
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO22023
Sierra BlancTEXAS22025
GageNEW-MEXICO12025
JornadaNEW-MEXICO12024
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO12023
CastolonTEXAS12025
PresidioTEXAS12021
Van HornTEXAS12024
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.