BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lucy's Warbler Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesArid-land birds

Lucy's Warbler in New Mexico has surged: up 385% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

+385%Since 1993TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lucy's Warbler Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lucy's Warbler has surged in New Mexico: up 385% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

Lucy's Warbler Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Lucy's Warbler in New Mexico is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.64–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.64–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lucy's Warbler in New Mexico is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.64–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19912029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.940.551.3
20260.970.571.4
20270.990.601.4
20281.00.621.4
20291.00.641.4

Lucy's Warbler Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Lucy's Warbler in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red Rock2720241992
Laborcita 21520242022
Hatchet Peak720241992
Gage720211999
Escondida320161998
Rodeo320242004
Reserve220102010
Lake Valley220231991
Emory Pass120192019
Cooley Lake120242024
Columbus120232018
Jornada120242024

Lucy's Warbler Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.