BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lucy's Warbler Population Trend in Texas

All statesArid-land birds

Lucy's Warbler in Texas has surged: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 2001.

+75%Since 2001
6Routes In State
25Years

Notable Lucy's Warbler Trends in Texas

No notable trend signals for Lucy's Warbler in Texas. See the full index history below.

Lucy's Warbler Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Lucy's Warbler in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029
0.06Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.1495% range
±51.9%Backtest error
19992029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.060.000.14
20260.060.000.14
20270.060.000.14
20280.060.000.14
20290.060.000.14

Lucy's Warbler Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Lucy's Warbler in Texas.
Quitman Cyn.1520091999
Sierra Blanc320242006
Quitman Canyon 2220242010
Presidio120212021
Van Horn120242024
Castolon120182001

Lucy's Warbler Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.