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Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lucy's Warbler Population Trend in Nevada

All statesArid-land birds

Lucy's Warbler in Nevada has surged: up 923% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

+923%Since 1989TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lucy's Warbler Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lucy's Warbler has surged in Nevada: up 923% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

Lucy's Warbler Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Lucy's Warbler in Nevada is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.88 (95% range 0.11–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.88Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.11–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lucy's Warbler in Nevada is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.88 (95% range 0.11–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.820.041.6
20260.830.061.6
20270.850.071.6
20280.870.091.6
20290.880.111.7

Lucy's Warbler Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Lucy's Warbler in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Meadow Vally1820241996
Nelson620241995
Hiko320221969
Ash Meadows220241993
Jean Lake120011997
Beatty120241997
Val Of Fire120241987

Lucy's Warbler Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.