BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lucy's Warbler Population Trend in Utah

All statesArid-land birds

Lucy's Warbler in Utah has surged: up 505% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

+505%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lucy's Warbler Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lucy's Warbler in Utah. See the full index history below.

Lucy's Warbler Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Lucy's Warbler in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.22 (95% range 0.10–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lucy's Warbler in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.22 (95% range 0.10–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19922030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.200.070.32
20270.200.080.33
20280.210.090.33
20290.220.090.34
20300.220.100.34

Lucy's Warbler Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Lucy's Warbler in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Moab620252014
Hatch520252016
Shivwitz220251992
Aneth220242024
Moquith Mtn220032002
Boulder120252025
Newcastle120162007

Lucy's Warbler Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.