BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lucy's Warbler Population Trend in Arizona

All statesArid-land birds

Lucy's Warbler in Arizona has edged up: up 16% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+16%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lucy's Warbler Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lucy's Warbler in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Lucy's Warbler Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Lucy's Warbler in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.8 (95% range 2.3–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lucy's Warbler in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.8 (95% range 2.3–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.82.317
20279.82.317
20289.82.317
20299.82.317
20309.82.317

Lucy's Warbler Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Lucy's Warbler in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pomerene9820251968
Cutter 26820182015
Redington6320251993
Patagonia5820251968
Sahuarita4920251992
Cutter4720141992
Wikieup3720241992
Peña Blanca3620251975
Amado3020251993
Wickenburg1620232017
Lukeville1319801975
Bartlett Res1320251993
New River1220161974
San Simon1220241969
Organ Pipe1020231990
Carr Mtn1020251985
Florence919881968
Red Rock 2720242015
Skull Valley720241997
Peach Spring720251993
Riviera620251992
Portal520251975
Coolidge519851978
Sunizona419971970
Alamo Res.420231993

Lucy's Warbler Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.