BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lucy's Warbler In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsArid-land birds

Lucy's Warbler in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 159% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+159%Since 1970
40Routes In Region
55Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Lucy's Warbler has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 159% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lucy's Warbler in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 1.5–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2029
3.5Projected 2029 index
1.5–5.595% range
±93.5%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20253.31.35.3
20263.41.35.4
20273.41.45.4
20283.51.55.5
20293.51.55.5

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Lucy's Warbler in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Cutter 2ARIZONA682018
WikieupARIZONA372024
WickenburgARIZONA162023
LukevilleARIZONA131980
New RiverARIZONA122016
Organ PipeARIZONA102023
FlorenceARIZONA91988
Red Rock 2ARIZONA72024
NelsonNEVADA62024
DatelandARIZONA52021
CoolidgeARIZONA51985
RivieraARIZONA52024
Alamo Res.ARIZONA42023
Cibola LakeARIZONA42024
PisinimoARIZONA41993
Red RockARIZONA42014
Squaw PeakARIZONA31968
AjoARIZONA32006
Casa GrandeARIZONA32023
Ajo 2ARIZONA32021
VicksburgARIZONA21980
Palo VerdeARIZONA22013
Cabeza PrietARIZONA22024
Willow BeachARIZONA21995
HopeARIZONA21994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.