BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lucy's Warbler In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauArid-land birds

Lucy's Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 623% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

+623%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lucy's Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Lucy's Warbler In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lucy's Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.15 (95% range 0.09–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lucy's Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.15 (95% range 0.09–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19922030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.130.070.20
20270.140.070.20
20280.140.080.21
20290.150.080.21
20300.150.090.21

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Lucy's Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Peach SpringARIZONA72025
MoabUTAH62025
HatchUTAH52025
AnethUTAH22024
Moquith MtnUTAH22003
ShivwitzUTAH22025
BoulderUTAH12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.