BirdAnalyst
Guild · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Arid-land Birds In Arizona

All statesArizona

21 species in this guild. As a group they are -12%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for arid-land birds in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Arid-land Birds In Arizona Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Arid-land birds in Arizona is projected to rise about 39% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.2–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Arid-land birds in Arizona is projected to rise about 39% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.2–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.82.25.4
20273.82.25.4
20283.82.25.4
20293.82.25.4
20303.82.25.4

Member Species In Arizona

Arid-land birds species in Arizona.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
LeConte's ThrasherMimidae-94%
Sagebrush SparrowPasserellidae-94%
Sage ThrasherMimidae-85%
Brewer's SparrowPasserellidae-78%
Black-tailed GnatcatcherPolioptilidae-49%
Black-chinned SparrowPasserellidae-49%
Bendire's ThrasherMimidae-47%
Black-throated SparrowPasserellidae-27%
Greater RoadrunnerCuculidae-21%
Cactus WrenTroglodytidae-13%
Canyon TowheePasserellidae-12%
VerdinRemizidae+4%
Lucy's WarblerParulidae+16%
Curve-billed ThrasherMimidae+20%
Gilded FlickerPicidae+29%
PhainopeplaPtiliogonatidae+74%
Gila WoodpeckerPicidae+160%
Abert's TowheePasserellidae+181%
Rufous-crowned SparrowPasserellidae+272%
Crissal ThrasherMimidae+429%
Rufous-winged SparrowPasserellidae+652%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.