Guild · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Arid-land Birds In Arizona
14 species in this guild. As a group they are +2% since 1970.
Guild Signals
No notable trend signals for arid-land birds in Arizona. See the full index history below.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Arid-land birds in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.1 (95% range 4.4–9.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+2%Change by 2029
7.1Projected 2029 index
4.4–9.895% range
±24.7%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 9.7 |
| 2026 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 9.7 |
| 2027 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 9.8 |
| 2028 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 9.8 |
| 2029 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 9.8 |
Member Species In Arizona
| Black-tailed Gnatcatcher | Polioptilidae | -52% |
| Greater Roadrunner | Cuculidae | -40% |
| Black-throated Sparrow | Passerellidae | -26% |
| Cactus Wren | Troglodytidae | -10% |
| Verdin | Remizidae | +5% |
| Lucy's Warbler | Parulidae | +12% |
| Gilded Flicker | Picidae | +28% |
| Curve-billed Thrasher | Mimidae | +29% |
| Gambel's Quail | Odontophoridae | +44% |
| Phainopepla | Ptiliogonatidae | +120% |
| Abert's Towhee | Passerellidae | +173% |
| Gila Woodpecker | Picidae | +187% |
| Pyrrhuloxia | Cardinalidae | +208% |
| Rufous-winged Sparrow | Passerellidae | +612% |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.