BirdAnalyst
Guild · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Arid-land Birds In Arizona

All statesArizona

14 species in this guild. As a group they are +2%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for arid-land birds in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Arid-land Birds In Arizona Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Arid-land birds in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.1 (95% range 4.4–9.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.4–9.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Arid-land birds in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.1 (95% range 4.4–9.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.04.39.7
20267.04.49.7
20277.14.49.8
20287.14.49.8
20297.14.49.8

Member Species In Arizona

Arid-land birds species in Arizona.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Black-tailed GnatcatcherPolioptilidae-52%
Greater RoadrunnerCuculidae-40%
Black-throated SparrowPasserellidae-26%
Cactus WrenTroglodytidae-10%
VerdinRemizidae+5%
Lucy's WarblerParulidae+12%
Gilded FlickerPicidae+28%
Curve-billed ThrasherMimidae+29%
Gambel's QuailOdontophoridae+44%
PhainopeplaPtiliogonatidae+120%
Abert's TowheePasserellidae+173%
Gila WoodpeckerPicidae+187%
PyrrhuloxiaCardinalidae+208%
Rufous-winged SparrowPasserellidae+612%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.