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Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gila Woodpecker Population Trend in Arizona

All statesArid-land birds

Gila Woodpecker in Arizona has surged: up 160% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+160%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gila Woodpecker Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gila Woodpecker has surged in Arizona: up 160% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Gila Woodpecker Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Gila Woodpecker in Arizona is projected to rise about 95% by 2030 — from 4.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.5 (95% range 4.3–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+95%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.3–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gila Woodpecker in Arizona is projected to rise about 95% by 2030 — from 4.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.5 (95% range 4.3–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.24.012
20278.24.112
20288.34.212
20298.44.313
20308.54.313

Gila Woodpecker Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Gila Woodpecker in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Organ Pipe10820231990
Bates Well5720231995
Red Rock 25220242015
Red Rock4520141992
New River3520161974
Florence3319881968
Lukeville2919811975
Cabeza Priet2620251993
Pomerene2520251968
Quartzsite2120251974
Bartlett Res1820251992
Redington1820251993
Patagonia1720251968
Carr Mtn1720251985
Wickenburg1120232017
Alamo Res.920251992
Ajo 2920222009
Araby820231992
Wikieup720241992
Ajo720081968
Gila Bend720251995
Cactus Forest720251991
Cibola Lake620241993
Cutter520141992
Amado520251993

Gila Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.