BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gila Woodpecker Population Trend in Arizona

All statesArid-land birds

Gila Woodpecker in Arizona has surged: up 187% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+187%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gila Woodpecker Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gila Woodpecker has surged in Arizona: up 187% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Gila Woodpecker Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Gila Woodpecker in Arizona is projected to rise about 39% by 2029 — from 6.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.7 (95% range 4.7–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.7–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gila Woodpecker in Arizona is projected to rise about 39% by 2029 — from 6.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.7 (95% range 4.7–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.44.312
20268.54.413
20278.54.513
20288.64.613
20298.74.713

Gila Woodpecker Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Gila Woodpecker in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Organ Pipe10820231990
Bates Well5720231995
Red Rock 25220242015
Red Rock4520141992
Redington3620231993
New River3520161974
Florence3319881968
Cabeza Priet3020241993
Lukeville2919811975
Bartlett Res2420241992
Pomerene2320241968
Carr Mtn1720241985
Patagonia1620241968
Quartzsite1320241974
Sahuarita1220241992
Wickenburg1120232017
Ajo 2920222009
Alamo Res.820241992
Araby820231992
Wikieup720241992
Ajo720081968
Amado720231993
Cibola Lake620241993
Palo Verde 2520242014
Cutter520141992

Gila Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.