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Species · California · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gila Woodpecker Population Trend in California

All statesArid-land birds

Gila Woodpecker in California has surged: up 144% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+144%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
20YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gila Woodpecker Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gila Woodpecker in California. See the full index history below.

Gila Woodpecker Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Gila Woodpecker in California is projected to fall about 28% by 2015 — from 0.09 in 2010 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.02–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±119%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2015TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2015 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±119%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gila Woodpecker in California is projected to fall about 28% by 2015 — from 0.09 in 2010 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.02–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±119%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732015
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20110.060.010.11
20120.060.010.11
20130.060.010.11
20140.060.010.11
20150.070.020.11

Gila Woodpecker Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Gila Woodpecker in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Imperial Dam1020101973
Alamo River219821982
Palo Verde120092009

Gila Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

arizonanew-mexico

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.