BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-tailed Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Arizona

All statesArid-land birds

Black-tailed Gnatcatcher in Arizona has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-52%Since 1970
52Routes In State
56Years

Notable Black-tailed Gnatcatcher Trends in Arizona

long arc declinecomputed index

Black-tailed Gnatcatcher has fallen sharply in Arizona: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Black-tailed Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Black-tailed Gnatcatcher in Arizona is projected to rise about 103% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 0.97–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±188.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+103%Change by 2029
4.8Projected 2029 index
0.97–8.595% range
±188.2%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20254.60.798.3
20264.60.838.4
20274.70.888.4
20284.70.938.5
20294.80.978.5

Black-tailed Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Black-tailed Gnatcatcher in Arizona.
Cutter3720141992
Organ Pipe3520231990
New River2620161975
Cibola Lake2420241993
Bates Well2120231995
Cutter 21720182015
Carr Mtn1620241985
Red Rock1520141992
Pisinimo1119931992
Casa Grande1020221989
Cabeza Priet920241993
Alamo Res.820241992
Ajo720081968
Quartzsite620241974
Blue619741974
Sahuarita620231993
Wickenburg620222017
Willow Beach619971989
Pomerene520241968
Coolidge419751975
Lukeville419811975
Bartlett Res420241992
Redington420231993
Oatman320191988
Aztec Peak319771974

Black-tailed Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

californianevadanew-mexicotexasutah

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.