BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-tailed Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Texas

All statesArid-land birds

Black-tailed Gnatcatcher in Texas has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-33%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-tailed Gnatcatcher Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-tailed Gnatcatcher in Texas. See the full index history below.

Black-tailed Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Black-tailed Gnatcatcher in Texas is projected to rise about 94% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.08–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±277.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+94%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.52Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–0.9695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±277.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-tailed Gnatcatcher in Texas is projected to rise about 94% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.08–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±277.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.500.050.94
20270.500.060.95
20280.510.070.95
20290.520.070.96
20300.520.080.96

Black-tailed Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Black-tailed Gnatcatcher in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sierra Blanc1020251999
Quitman Cyn.920091999
Dove Mtn.920062003
Casa Piedra720251986
Quitman Canyon 2520252010
Castolon520251994
Longfellow520191968
Guerra420182018
Van Horn320252017
Pumpville320252006
Langtry320001997
Black Gap320251988
Chisos Basin220251995
Marfa220222005
Montell220001998
Devils R Cyn220241994
Hot Springs220251967
Girvin220172017
Agua Nueva120192007
Marathon120212005
Encinal120061981
Catarina119711971
Cavasara Cr.120132008
Laredo120231998
Millett120031998

Black-tailed Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.