BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-tailed Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Texas

All statesArid-land birds

Black-tailed Gnatcatcher in Texas has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-44%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-tailed Gnatcatcher Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-tailed Gnatcatcher in Texas. See the full index history below.

Black-tailed Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Black-tailed Gnatcatcher in Texas is projected to rise about 535% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.09–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±246.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+535%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.53Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.9895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±246.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-tailed Gnatcatcher in Texas is projected to rise about 535% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.09–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±246.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.510.060.95
20260.520.070.96
20270.520.080.96
20280.530.080.97
20290.530.090.98

Black-tailed Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Black-tailed Gnatcatcher in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Presidio1320232000
Quitman Cyn.920091999
Dove Mtn.920062003
Longfellow520191968
Pumpville420242006
Guerra420182018
Langtry320001997
Black Gap320231988
Marfa220222005
Casa Piedra220231986
Montell220001998
Devils R Cyn220241994
Sierra Blanc220241999
Girvin220172017
Agua Nueva120192007
Chisos Basin120241995
Marathon120212005
Encinal120061981
Van Horn120242017
Catarina119711971
Cavasara Cr.120132008
Laredo120231998
Quitman Canyon 2120242010
Millett120031998
Pedro Creek120102003

Black-tailed Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.