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Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-tailed Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Texas

All statesArid-land birds

Black-tailed Gnatcatcher in Texas has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-44%Since 1969
41Routes In State
55Years

Notable Black-tailed Gnatcatcher Trends in Texas

No notable trend signals for Black-tailed Gnatcatcher in Texas. See the full index history below.

Black-tailed Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Black-tailed Gnatcatcher in Texas is projected to rise about 535% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.09–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±246.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+535%Change by 2029
0.53Projected 2029 index
0.09–0.9895% range
±246.7%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.510.060.95
20260.520.070.96
20270.520.080.96
20280.530.080.97
20290.530.090.98

Black-tailed Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Black-tailed Gnatcatcher in Texas.
Presidio1320232000
Quitman Cyn.920091999
Dove Mtn.920062003
Longfellow520191968
Pumpville420242006
Guerra420182018
Langtry320001997
Black Gap320231988
Marfa220222005
Casa Piedra220231986
Montell220001998
Devils R Cyn220241994
Sierra Blanc220241999
Girvin220172017
Agua Nueva120192007
Chisos Basin120241995
Marathon120212005
Encinal120061981
Van Horn120242017
Catarina119711971
Cavasara Cr.120132008
Laredo120231998
Quitman Canyon 2120242010
Millett120031998
Pedro Creek120102003

Black-tailed Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.