Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-tailed Gnatcatcher

PolioptilidaeArid-land birdsPolioptila melanura

Black-tailed Gnatcatcher has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-28%Since 1969
144Routes
57Years Surveyed

About the Black-tailed Gnatcatcher

The Black-tailed Gnatcatcher (Polioptila melanura) is a North American member of the Gnatcatchers (Polioptilidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the arid-land birds.

Size
4–5 in long (10–13 cm) — a tiny, long-tailed songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Deserts, dry scrub and brushland of the Southwest.
Diet
Seeds, insects and cactus fruit of arid-land plants.
Range
Recorded on 144 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 6 states, most concentrated in the Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Family
Polioptilidae · Arid-land birds

Notable Black-tailed Gnatcatcher Trends

No notable trend signals for Black-tailed Gnatcatcher. See the full index history below.

Black-tailed Gnatcatcher Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-tailed Gnatcatcher is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.13 (95% range 0.05–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±166.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029
0.13Projected 2029 index
0.050.2195% range
±166.4%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.130.050.21
20260.130.050.21
20270.130.050.21
20280.130.050.21
20290.130.050.21

Where the Black-tailed Gnatcatcher Is Detected

BBS routes recording Black-tailed Gnatcatcher, sized by most recent count.

Black-tailed Gnatcatcher Population Trend by State

Black-tailed Gnatcatcher population trend by state.
Arizona-52%197052
California-74%197133
Nevada-74%19738
New Mexico+215%19959
Texas-44%196941
Utahinsufficient datan/a1

Black-tailed Gnatcatcher Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Black-tailed Gnatcatcher population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts-55%197066
Sierra Madre Occidental-18%197116
Chihuahuan Desert-60%196937
Tamaulipan Brushlands+105%19939

Black-tailed Gnatcatcher Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 28% since 1969.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.