Black-tailed Gnatcatcher
Black-tailed Gnatcatcher has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1969.
About the Black-tailed Gnatcatcher
The Black-tailed Gnatcatcher (Polioptila melanura) is a North American member of the Gnatcatchers (Polioptilidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the arid-land birds.
- Size
- 4–5 in long (10–13 cm) — a tiny, long-tailed songbird (typical for the family)
- Habitat
- Deserts, dry scrub and brushland of the Southwest.
- Diet
- Seeds, insects and cactus fruit of arid-land plants.
- Range
- Recorded on 144 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 6 states, most concentrated in the Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
- Family
- Polioptilidae · Arid-land birds
Notable Black-tailed Gnatcatcher Trends
No notable trend signals for Black-tailed Gnatcatcher. See the full index history below.
Black-tailed Gnatcatcher Population Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Black-tailed Gnatcatcher is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.13 (95% range 0.05–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±166.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.21 |
| 2026 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.21 |
| 2027 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.21 |
| 2028 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.21 |
| 2029 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.21 |
Where the Black-tailed Gnatcatcher Is Detected
BBS routes recording Black-tailed Gnatcatcher, sized by most recent count.
Black-tailed Gnatcatcher Population Trend by State
| Arizona | -52% | 1970 | 52 |
| California | -74% | 1971 | 33 |
| Nevada | -74% | 1973 | 8 |
| New Mexico | +215% | 1995 | 9 |
| Texas | -44% | 1969 | 41 |
| Utah | insufficient data | n/a | 1 |
Black-tailed Gnatcatcher Population Trend by Region
Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.
| Sonoran and Mojave Deserts | -55% | 1970 | 66 |
| Sierra Madre Occidental | -18% | 1971 | 16 |
| Chihuahuan Desert | -60% | 1969 | 37 |
| Tamaulipan Brushlands | +105% | 1993 | 9 |
Black-tailed Gnatcatcher Conservation Status
Our route-weighted index shows it down about 28% since 1969.
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.