BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-tailed Gnatcatcher In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsArid-land birds

Black-tailed Gnatcatcher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-55%Since 1970
66Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Black-tailed Gnatcatcher has fallen sharply in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-tailed Gnatcatcher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 134% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 0.86–9.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±157.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+134%Change by 2029
5.1Projected 2029 index
0.86–9.395% range
±157.7%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20254.80.639.0
20264.90.699.1
20275.00.749.2
20285.00.809.2
20295.10.869.3

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Black-tailed Gnatcatcher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Organ PipeARIZONA352023
New RiverARIZONA262016
Cibola LakeARIZONA242024
Bates WellARIZONA212023
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA192013
Cutter 2ARIZONA172018
Red RockARIZONA152014
GlamisCALIFORNIA152018
PisinimoARIZONA111993
Casa GrandeARIZONA102022
Cabeza PrietARIZONA92024
Alamo Res.ARIZONA82024
BlytheCALIFORNIA82003
AjoARIZONA72008
Havasu LakeCALIFORNIA72003
QuartzsiteARIZONA62024
WickenburgARIZONA62022
Willow BeachARIZONA61997
CoolidgeARIZONA41975
LukevilleARIZONA41981
Iron MtnsCALIFORNIA42018
Ash MeadowsNEVADA42006
OatmanARIZONA32019
LagunaARIZONA32023
AntaresARIZONA32018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.