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Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gilded Flicker Population Trend in Arizona

All statesArid-land birds

Gilded Flicker in Arizona has increased: up 29% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+29%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gilded Flicker Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gilded Flicker in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Gilded Flicker Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Gilded Flicker in Arizona is projected to rise about 51% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.95–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+51%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.95–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gilded Flicker in Arizona is projected to rise about 51% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.95–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.10.893.3
20272.10.913.3
20282.10.923.3
20292.10.933.3
20302.10.953.3

Gilded Flicker Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Gilded Flicker in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Organ Pipe1620231990
Hope1620091991
Casa Grande1620221989
Cabeza Priet1520251993
Lukeville1319811975
Bates Well1320231995
Florence1219881968
Alamo Res.1220251992
Wickenburg1220232017
New River920161974
Carr Mtn920251985
Ajo720011968
Red Rock 2720242015
Red Rock720141997
Wikieup520221993
Bartlett Res520251995
Vicksburg419891968
Aztec Peak419771974
Coolidge419851974
Pisinimo419931992
Cactus Forest420251991
Quartzsite320251974
Gila Bend320251995
Oatman220051994
Sunizona219971983

Gilded Flicker Population Trend in Other States

californianevada

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.