BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rufous-winged Sparrow Population Trend in Arizona

All statesArid-land birds

Rufous-winged Sparrow in Arizona has surged: up 612% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+612%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rufous-winged Sparrow Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rufous-winged Sparrow has surged in Arizona: up 612% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Rufous-winged Sparrow Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Rufous-winged Sparrow in Arizona is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 0.74 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.89 (95% range 0.28–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±146.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.89Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.28–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±146.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rufous-winged Sparrow in Arizona is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 0.74 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.89 (95% range 0.28–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±146.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.820.211.4
20260.830.221.4
20270.850.241.5
20280.870.261.5
20290.890.281.5

Rufous-winged Sparrow Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Rufous-winged Sparrow in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sahuarita1520241995
Redington1320232003
Pomerene1120241973
Red Rock 2620192015
Amado520231994
Sunizona219701970
Cutter 2220182016
Patagonia120171990
Red Rock120101998
Cactus Forest120172017
Cabeza Priet120232023
Casa Grande120112011
Peña Blanca120231977

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.