BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rufous-winged Sparrow Population Trend in Arizona

All statesArid-land birds

Rufous-winged Sparrow in Arizona has surged: up 612% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+612%Since 1974
13Routes In State
36Years

Notable Rufous-winged Sparrow Trends in Arizona

long arc increasecomputed index

Rufous-winged Sparrow has surged in Arizona: up 612% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Rufous-winged Sparrow Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Rufous-winged Sparrow in Arizona is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 0.74 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.89 (95% range 0.28–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±146.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029
0.89Projected 2029 index
0.28–1.595% range
±146.5%Backtest error
19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.820.211.4
20260.830.221.4
20270.850.241.5
20280.870.261.5
20290.890.281.5

Rufous-winged Sparrow Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Rufous-winged Sparrow in Arizona.
Sahuarita1520241995
Redington1320232003
Pomerene1120241973
Red Rock 2620192015
Amado520231994
Sunizona219701970
Cutter 2220182016
Patagonia120171990
Red Rock120101998
Cactus Forest120172017
Cabeza Priet120232023
Casa Grande120112011
Peña Blanca120231977

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.