BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rufous-winged Sparrow

PasserellidaeArid-land birdsPeucaea carpalis

Rufous-winged Sparrow has no long-term trend on record.

n/aSince n/aTrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Rufous-winged Sparrow

The Rufous-winged Sparrow (Peucaea carpalis) is a North American member of the New World Sparrows (Passerellidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the arid-land birds.

Size
4.5–7.5 in long (12–19 cm) — a small songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Deserts, dry scrub and brushland of the Southwest.
Diet
Seeds, insects and cactus fruit of arid-land plants.
Range
Recorded on 13 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 1 state, most concentrated in the Sierra Madre Occidental.
Family
Passerellidae · Arid-land birds

Notable Rufous-winged Sparrow TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rufous-winged Sparrow. See the full index history below.

Rufous-winged Sparrow Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rufous-winged Sparrow is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.01–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.0395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±127.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rufous-winged Sparrow is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.01–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.03
20260.010.000.03
20270.010.000.03
20280.020.010.03
20290.020.010.03

Where the Rufous-winged Sparrow Is Detected

BBS routes recording Rufous-winged Sparrow, sized by most recent count.

Rufous-winged Sparrow Population Trend by State

Rufous-winged Sparrow population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona+612%197413

Rufous-winged Sparrow Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Rufous-winged Sparrow population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Sierra Madre Occidental+305%19747

Rufous-winged Sparrow Conservation Status

Rufous-winged Sparrow is tracked across BBS survey routes; no formal conservation-status flag is recorded here.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.