BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rufous-winged Sparrow In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalArid-land birds

Rufous-winged Sparrow in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 317% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+317%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rufous-winged Sparrow has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 317% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Rufous-winged Sparrow In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rufous-winged Sparrow in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 288% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.34–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±204.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+288%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.34–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±204.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rufous-winged Sparrow in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 288% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.34–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±204.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.222.7
20271.50.252.7
20281.50.282.8
20291.60.312.8
20301.60.342.8

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Rufous-winged Sparrow in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SahuaritaARIZONA152024
PomereneARIZONA62025
AmadoARIZONA32025
SunizonaARIZONA21970
RedingtonARIZONA22025
Peña BlancaARIZONA12023
PatagoniaARIZONA12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.