BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rufous-winged Sparrow In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalArid-land birds

Rufous-winged Sparrow in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 305% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+305%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rufous-winged Sparrow has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 305% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rufous-winged Sparrow in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.45–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±149.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.45–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±149.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rufous-winged Sparrow in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.45–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±149.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.322.7
20261.60.352.8
20271.60.382.8
20281.60.412.8
20291.70.452.9

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Rufous-winged Sparrow in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SahuaritaARIZONA152024
RedingtonARIZONA132023
PomereneARIZONA112024
AmadoARIZONA52023
SunizonaARIZONA21970
Peña BlancaARIZONA12023
PatagoniaARIZONA12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.