BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Crissal Thrasher Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Crissal Thrasher in Arizona has surged: up 401% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+401%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Crissal Thrasher Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Crissal Thrasher has surged in Arizona: up 401% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Crissal Thrasher Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Crissal Thrasher in Arizona is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±102.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.51Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±102.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Crissal Thrasher in Arizona is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±102.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.510.001.1
20260.510.001.1
20270.510.001.1
20280.510.001.1
20290.510.001.1

Crissal Thrasher Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Crissal Thrasher in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New River520101999
Wikieup420051998
Pomerene420241969
San Simon420241978
Carr Mtn420231985
Dragoon319971993
Toroweap320181994
Mcneal320231997
Portal220161986
Rucker219961993
Oraibi220182018
Oatman220001992
Prescott220221976
Dateland220161996
Ajo220012000
Sunizona219781974
Cutter 2220172017
Forest Lakes220192019
Cabeza Priet220192016
Amado220131999
Navajo Trail220182009
Casa Grande220191996
Organ Pipe120212003
Quartzsite120171990
Florence119721972

Crissal Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

californianevadanew-mexicotexasutah

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.