BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Crissal Thrasher Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Crissal Thrasher in Texas has surged: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+96%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Crissal Thrasher Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Crissal Thrasher in Texas. See the full index history below.

Crissal Thrasher Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Crissal Thrasher in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Crissal Thrasher in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.07
20260.020.000.07
20270.020.000.07
20280.020.000.07
20290.020.000.07

Crissal Thrasher Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Crissal Thrasher in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Salt Flat220032003
Chisos Basin220241998
Quitman Cyn.220092000
Ozona219981997
Quitman Canyon 2220222010
Black Gap220141988
Castolon220181998
Presidio120232010
Slaughter120211973
Van Horn120232017
Canutillo120091994
Hot Springs120181984
Casa Piedra120191999
Sierra Blanc120172002
Delaware Crk119871972
Cornudas120031978

Crissal Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.