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Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Crissal Thrasher Population Trend in Nevada

All statesGeneralists

Crissal Thrasher in Nevada has collapsed: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-91%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Crissal Thrasher Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Crissal Thrasher has collapsed in Nevada: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Crissal Thrasher Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Crissal Thrasher in Nevada is projected to fall about 100% by 2027 — from 0.07 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±200.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±200.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Crissal Thrasher in Nevada is projected to fall about 100% by 2027 — from 0.07 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±200.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.000.000.36
20240.000.000.36
20250.000.000.36
20260.000.000.36
20270.000.000.36

Crissal Thrasher Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Crissal Thrasher in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Desert Nwr320061990
Beatty220061995
Jean Lake120101973
Nelson120182000
Ash Meadows120221993

Crissal Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.