BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Crissal Thrasher Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesArid-land birds

Crissal Thrasher in New Mexico has risen sharply: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+70%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Crissal Thrasher Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Crissal Thrasher has risen sharply in New Mexico: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Crissal Thrasher Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Crissal Thrasher in New Mexico is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Crissal Thrasher in New Mexico is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.090.000.31
20270.080.000.31
20280.080.000.31
20290.080.000.30
20300.080.000.30

Crissal Thrasher Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Crissal Thrasher in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Engle719811979
Jornada420181974
Rodeo420241985
Bitter Lake320251997
Mesilla320001993
Sunshine Wll320181992
San Simon219881987
Vicks Peak220232021
Hatchet Peak220231994
Torreon119961996
Gage120221996
Lakewood119901990
Magdalena120002000
Laborcita 2120252024
Mcgaffey119961996
Laborcita120191992
Red Rock120241992
Pinon120092004
Queen120212021
Hobbs120052005
Columbus120041992
Cerro Verde120252025
Escondida120232016
Lake Valley120221979

Crissal Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.