BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sage Thrasher Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Sage Thrasher in Arizona has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-85%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sage Thrasher Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sage Thrasher has collapsed in Arizona: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Sage Thrasher Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.75). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±288.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±288.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.75). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±288.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.75
20250.000.000.75
20260.000.000.75
20270.000.000.75
20280.000.000.75

Sage Thrasher Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Sage Thrasher in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Greasewood1219961993
Round Rock819891968
Yampai519701970
Black Mesa419951988
Mt Trumbull319781975
House Rock320221969
Castle Butte320071994
Rose Wells219781974
Tsaile220232022
Oraibi220191991
Hunt220181972
Cow Springs220001993
Maine219971997
The Gap119731969
Navajo Trail120152011
Mormon Lake119741969
Toroweap120051994
Page120111993

Sage Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahomontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.