BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sage Thrasher Population Trend in California

All statesGeneralists

Sage Thrasher in California has surged: up 286% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+286%Since 1973
31Routes In State
53Years

Notable Sage Thrasher Trends in California

long arc increasecomputed index

Sage Thrasher has surged in California: up 286% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Sage Thrasher Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in California is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.62–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2029
1.5Projected 2029 index
0.62–2.495% range
±15.7%Backtest error
19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.50.582.4
20261.50.592.4
20271.50.602.4
20281.50.612.4
20291.50.622.4

Sage Thrasher Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Sage Thrasher in California.
Crowley Lake7620241972
Benton6220241973
Bodie3220241982
Ravendale2920241973
Honey Lake1420241972
Wildrose1119931992
Sattley720241974
Dorris720191973
Big Pine620241971
Haiwee Res419981976
Macdoel420191972
Bridgeport419771972
Clear Lk Res420181977
Chilcoot420241998
Darwin420011992
Likely320181974
Crowder Flat220182006
Onyx219921980
Last Chance220142009
Gazelle120012001
Dardanelle119961974
Tionesta120191997
Madeline120242010
Davis Creek119931993
Crestview120181997

Sage Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

arizonacoloradoidahomontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.