BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sage Thrasher Population Trend in Oregon

All statesGeneralists

Sage Thrasher in Oregon has increased: up 49% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+49%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sage Thrasher Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sage Thrasher in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Sage Thrasher Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Oregon is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 4.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Oregon is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 4.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.80.0014
20265.80.0014
20275.70.0014
20285.60.0014
20295.50.0014

Sage Thrasher Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Sage Thrasher in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Princeton8219851972
Lookout Lake7119941985
Crowley6020241983
Willow Spg5919711969
Flook Lake5220241994
Fandango Can4720241977
Blizzard Gap4420241984
Blitzen4219931971
Green Mtn.3820241994
Wagontire3720241968
Malheur Nwr3420221986
Blitzen 22720241994
Crane2220241993
Harney Lake2020241993
Madras1920241997
Sheaville1720242012
Malheur Res.1420232022
Clover Creek1220241972
Crooked Riv.1220241994
Barnes Val819721971
Battle Mtn820241985
Bly620011973
Fish Lake620241972
Bowden Hills420241999
Donnybrook419971997

Sage Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.