BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sage Thrasher Population Trend in Oregon

All statesArid-land birds

Sage Thrasher in Oregon has edged up: up 23% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+23%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sage Thrasher Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sage Thrasher in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Sage Thrasher Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Oregon is projected to rise about 74% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+74%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Oregon is projected to rise about 74% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.50.0014
20275.50.0014
20285.40.0014
20295.30.0014
20305.20.0014

Sage Thrasher Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Sage Thrasher in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Princeton8219851972
Lookout Lake7119941985
Willow Spg5919711969
Blitzen4219931971
Crowley3520251983
Malheur Nwr3420221986
Green Mtn.3320251994
Fandango Can3220251977
Blizzard Gap3020251984
Wagontire2920251968
Blitzen 22520251994
Crane2220241993
Harney Lake2020241993
Flook Lake1920251994
Three Forks1420252003
Clover Creek1420251972
Malheur Res.1420232022
Sheaville1320252012
Crooked Riv.1220251994
Catlow Rim1120251993
Battle Mtn920251985
Madras920251997
Barnes Val819721971
Bly620011973
Fish Lake520251972

Sage Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.