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Species · Wyoming · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sage Thrasher Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesGeneralists

Sage Thrasher in Wyoming has surged: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+96%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sage Thrasher Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sage Thrasher has surged in Wyoming: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Sage Thrasher Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Wyoming is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.8 (95% range 0.00–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Wyoming is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.8 (95% range 0.00–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.20.0022
20268.10.0022
20278.00.0022
20287.90.0022
20297.80.0022

Sage Thrasher Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Sage Thrasher in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Patrick Draw9219801973
Patrick Draw 28519831981
Mckinnon8119861969
Black Rock 27820242010
Bear Creek7520241968
Bairoil7020241988
Ryegrass6220241990
Daniel6019881980
Diamondville5819821977
Carter 25820242017
Baggs5520241995
Seedskadee 25520242024
Reliance5120181977
Patrick Draw 64520242010
Shirley4020241980
Rawlins 24020242015
Mtn View3920241980
Ervay3320241973
Lamont3220241987
Elk Horn 23220242022
Flamin Gorge3220241988
Wamsutter3120241990
Carter3120162006
Rock Springs 23120242023
Green River2919841977

Sage Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.