BirdAnalyst
Species · Wyoming · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sage Thrasher Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesArid-land birds

Sage Thrasher in Wyoming has surged: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+94%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sage Thrasher Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sage Thrasher has surged in Wyoming: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Sage Thrasher Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Wyoming is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.8 (95% range 0.00–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Wyoming is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.8 (95% range 0.00–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.20.0022
20278.10.0022
20288.00.0022
20297.90.0022
20307.80.0022

Sage Thrasher Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Sage Thrasher in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Patrick Draw9219801973
Ryegrass8720251990
Patrick Draw 28519831981
Mckinnon8119861969
Reliance6120251977
Daniel6019881980
Diamondville5819821977
Seedskadee 25520242024
Bear Creek5120251968
Bairoil4920251988
Lamont4720251987
Shirley3820251980
Big Sandy3720251983
Carter 23520252017
Ervay3220251973
Elk Horn 23220252022
Carter3120162006
Rawlins 23120252015
Black Rock 23020252010
Green River2919841977
Flamin Gorge2920251988
Patrick Draw 52920092005
Frannie2520252000
Lovell2520251994
Nowood2420251990

Sage Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.