BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sage Thrasher Population Trend in Washington

All statesArid-land birds

Sage Thrasher in Washington has surged: up 144% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+144%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sage Thrasher Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sage Thrasher has surged in Washington: up 144% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Sage Thrasher Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Washington is projected to rise about 61% by 2030 — from 0.56 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.42–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+61%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.91Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.42–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±89.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Washington is projected to rise about 61% by 2030 — from 0.56 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.42–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.870.391.3
20270.880.401.4
20280.890.411.4
20290.900.411.4
20300.910.421.4

Sage Thrasher Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Sage Thrasher in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pomona1219991998
Moses Coulee720251993
Odessa720251993
Harrington520051977
Ellensburg420251981
Keystone420251994
Arid Land Er319881988
Othello319871981
Hanford Site219891988
Selah220252000
Ewan 2220252025
Bickleton220041985
Sulphur219971995
Hartline220011994
Harwood219971997
Twisp120002000
Brewster120151977
Reardan119771970
Columbia Nwr120072007
Mercer120161982
Connell120151968
Asotin120142014
Tonasket120031983
Quincy120211993
Wilbur120172003

Sage Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoregonsouth-dakotautahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.