BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sage Thrasher Population Trend in Nevada

All statesGeneralists

Sage Thrasher in Nevada has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-32%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sage Thrasher Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sage Thrasher in Nevada. See the full index history below.

Sage Thrasher Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Nevada is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 0.00–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Nevada is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 0.00–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025170.0043
2026170.0043
2027160.0043
2028160.0043
2029160.0042

Sage Thrasher Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Sage Thrasher in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sheldon Nwr11620191992
Dinner Sta10519931969
Dobbin Creek9520181968
Toiyabe Nf8920241987
Walker Can8020241968
Mizpah6720241988
Charleston Reservoir6620242024
Bald Mtn.6220241992
Midas4220241974
Ranchogrande4020241988
Eureka3220241968
Illipah2320211968
Cortez1820241968
Humboldt Nf1720191993
Minerva1120241988
Majors Place1020241968
Calico Spr919741968
Darroughs Hot Spgs920242002
Ruby Valley 2820242004
Rye Patch719741969
Fish Creek720191997
Ruby Valley720011997
Gardnerville520111993
Willis520241988
Nixon520161974

Sage Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.