BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sage Thrasher Population Trend in Idaho

All statesGeneralists

Sage Thrasher in Idaho has surged: up 106% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+106%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sage Thrasher Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sage Thrasher has surged in Idaho: up 106% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Sage Thrasher Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Idaho is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 10 (95% range 4.6–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.6–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sage Thrasher in Idaho is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 10 (95% range 4.6–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.94.515
20269.94.515
202710.04.515
2028104.615
2029104.615

Sage Thrasher Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Sage Thrasher in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dubois4720241969
Twin Buttes4120241985
Lost River3820241985
Kyle Canyon3320241985
Henry3119831973
Carey2620181989
Iron Springs2420241988
Tractor Flat2020241985
Blacks Creek1620171969
Circular Bu1520241985
Craters1520181979
Blackft Res1320181984
Triangle1320241985
Sawtooth Cty1220141988
Hot Spring1020141988
Almo820231988
Leadore720241974
Daniels Res520191988
Mud Lake420152004
Dougal Res420211988
Baker320241974
Crane Creek320191988
Springfield220161977
Picabo220211988
Cape Horn119961996

Sage Thrasher Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradomontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.